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Occam's Razor: The simplest explanation is the likeliest
A useful way to think is by elimination. I’m sure all of you practiced this when answering multiple-choice questions in the past. If you don’t know the answer, you can at least try to narrow it down by crossing off answers that you clearly know to be wrong.
This thinking method can be taken further, and conceptualized as a RAZOR. With a razor, you can shave off unlikely explanations to get closer to the truth. The most important one to know is:
Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.
In other words, we should avoid looking for excessively complex solutions to a problem, and focus on what works given the circumstances.
Occam’s razor can be used in a wide range of situations, as a means of making rapid decisions and establishing truths without empirical evidence.
It works best as a mental model for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.
Source: Farnham Street
This razor makes quick work of almost all conspiracy theories, as an example chemtrails.
- When airplanes fly high, there are vapor trails coming from their engines. Which explanation is more likely?
- Due to some natural mechanism, the hot exhaust gases turn water in the air to vapor resulting in this phenomenon. What needs to be true for this to work:
- Hot air going into cold air creates water vapor due to a physical process. This could be tested in an experiment (and turns out to be easy to verify. If you breath in cold air you can also see your breath become vapor)
- A secret global conspiracy is flying many thousands of planes every day, spraying mind control drugs on the population. What needs to be true for this to work:
- A global secret conspiracy without ever having a data leak or whistleblower
- The secret existence of mind-controlling drugs
- Every plane, including fighter jets has the space inside to house the drugs
- Passenger jets have enough additional space in their holds to store enough drugs to continuously spray it for the entire duration of their trip